A quick look at the IOM numbers
Numbers Don’t Lie
Of course, numbers don’t lie because numbers don’t say anything at all! People lie. Twisting numbers this way and bending numbers that way…statistics…little lies that get hidden amongst the numbers!
Today I will stick to the raw numbers of the recently concluded Isle of Man tournament, one of the strongest open tournaments of all time. The numbers below tell the story, not the lie.
Congratulations to 30-year old Chinese GM Wang Hao for edging out Caruana in the 11th round to win one of the toughest open tournaments of all time. Ranked #15 before the tournament, Wang Hao won 6 games, lost 1 and drew 4. He won $60,000, 25 ELO points as well as qualifying for the next Candidates Tournament. Not bad for 11 days of doing what he loves most!
- 154 participants from 42 countries
- Including 17 Women players
- 26 from Russia and 15 from India
- 135 GMs and 16 IMs
- 2 players rated more than 2800
- 19 players rated in the 2700’s
- 89 players rated in the 2600’s
- 11 players rated in the 2500’s
- 841 games were played
- White won 263 times
- Black won 136 times
- Draw 441 times
- 1 forfeit and 1 withdrawal
Top Finishing Scores
- 2 players on 8/11
- 6 players on 7.5/11
- 5 players on 7/11
- 29 players on 6.5/11
- 22 players on 6/11
- 40 players on 5.5/11
- 1-2: Wang Hao and Caruana – $60,000 each
- 3-8: $27,667 each
- 9-13: $9,600 each
- 14-42: $2,276 each
Highest placed woman was Dronavalli on 5.5/11. In 83rd place, but worth a cool $9,000. She also won 23 Elo points. Congrats!!
- 64 players scored above 50%.
- 104 players scored 50% or more.
- 50 players scored less than 50%.
How many players finished EXACTLY in the same position as they were ranked at the start of the tournament? You might be suprised to learn that only 7 players succeeded in doing this:
- Fabiano Caruana, #2. But he won 10 Elo points doing so!
- Peter Leko, #42. But he lost 1.7 Elo points doing so!
- Karen Movsziszian, #130. But he lost 5.4 Elo points doing so!
- Pia Cramling, #134. But she lost 9 Elo points doing so!
- David Gavrilesu, #136. But he lost 1 Elo point doing so!
- Marie Sebag, #138. But she lost 1.8 Elo points doing so!
- Wu Li, #150. But he lost 39 Elo points doing so!
The Top-100 Finishers
You might be interested in learning that of the top-10 highest rated players, 7 lost rating points — including World Champion Magnus Carlsen!
Of the next highest rated players (top players #11 to #20), 5 lost rating points!
But the worse is for the highest rated players ranked between #21 and #30: 9 of these players lost rating points!!
But there is MORE: of the top-50 highest rated players, how many finished in the top-50? The answer is 29!
I know that I wanted to just stick to numbers in this little article, but WHAT does this say about the accuracy of the ELO rating system?
You can draw your own conclusions, but let me leave you with this bit of wisdom gathered from years of battle-scarred experience: ELO is just a statistic ! Tournament chess is REAL life.