2018 FIDE election UPDATE
Dvorkovich ahead in leadership race!
Sometime in the next 24 to 36 hours Kirsan Ilyumzhinov is expected to announce in Moscow his official withdrawal from the 2018 FIDE presidential race.
The man who has been at the helm of FIDE since November 1995, Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, will likely throw his full support behind Arkady Dvorkovich, but will be open to accept an honorary position within FIDE’s next administration.
While I can not name my information sources, people close to Dvorkovich believe (this week) that they have approximately 83 votes so far, compared to low-60s for Makro and mid-20s for Short.
It is anticipated that half of Makro’s votes (the anti-Kirsan votes) will jump ship sometime in July, and Short will withdraw by the end of the summer. In any case, Dvorkovich is expected to win comfortably in the first round of voting on October 3 in Batumi at the FIDE Congress.
Even though the 46 year old Dvorkovich is presently very busy as chairman of the FIFA World Cup in Russia, he has had several serious meetings with his chess advisers in the last few days and is in the process of forming his team. The deadline for this to be announced is in early July, but it is expected he will do so at a June 26 meeting of the RCF (Russian Chess Federation).
My personal analysis
I think the chess community is tired of all of the bitter feuding since Makropoulos assumed control of FIDE in late 2015 after Kirsan voluntarily stepped down from the day to day operations of the organization. Most of this has been unnecessary and counter productive. The US sanctions against Kirsan is only part of the problem, but has been exploited to sow chaos and confusion in the world chess community. I think everyone is fed up now.
Dvorkovich’s entrance into the race for the presidency in October is seen as a step in the right direction. It is necessary to create stability. It is necessary to rebuild FIDE. And more important, it is necessary to have a fresh, youthful leadership to attract sponsors and improve FIDE’s marketability.
My own analysis shows that Dvorkovich is leading on all continents since his announcement last Friday. He is even expected to take most of western Europe, a traditionally anti-Kirsan stronghold.
To be continued…